Morgan Stanley has urged investors to consider taking profits on Bitcoin, describing the current market phase as the “fall season” of the cryptocurrency’s four-year cycle. The bank’s wealth management strategist Denny Galindo said that while Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strong, historical patterns suggest a cooling period may be approaching.
“Fall is the time for harvest, so it’s the time you want to take your gains,” Galindo said in a recent note. He explained that Bitcoin tends to follow a repeating pattern of three rising years followed by one year of correction, aligning with its halving cycle and broader market liquidity trends.
The analyst’s comments come as Bitcoin slipped below $102,000 this week, extending a mild pullback despite strength in equities and gold. Morgan Stanley believes this is consistent with the early stages of the so-called fall season, a phase that has historically preceded slower growth or brief corrections before the next major rally.
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The firm’s report also highlighted signals that align with its cautious tone. Bitcoin’s momentum indicators have softened, inflows into spot ETFs have plateaued, and market liquidity appears to be stabilizing rather than expanding. Despite this, Morgan Stanley pointed out that institutional adoption remains robust, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now holding more than $137 billion and Ether ETFs roughly $22 billion.
Analysts said the bank’s message is not a call for panic selling but a reminder for investors to manage exposure prudently after an extended rally. “The debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start,” Galindo noted, emphasizing that the crypto cycle remains tied to liquidity and investor sentiment.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s near-term performance will depend on broader macroeconomic factors, including U.S. interest rate decisions and risk appetite across asset classes. A sustained move below $100,000 could validate the bank’s warning, while a rebound above $110,000 might suggest that the rally still has room to run.
Morgan Stanley’s “harvest season” call reflects a more measured stance toward digital assets as the market matures and volatility normalizes. For now, the message is simple: Bitcoin’s bull run may not be over, but it could be time to trim profits before the next cycle turns.
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